tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-44831360614948491302024-03-12T17:58:13.815-07:00Machine One BeleggingsStudieClubAnsgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.comBlogger84125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-53323912062125342442060-08-02T14:20:00.000-07:002020-01-03T08:33:45.259-08:00Graham Defensive Stock Selection<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br />AANDELEN SELECTIE VOOR DE DEFENSIEVE BELEGGER:<br /><br />· Liever geen hightech bedrijven of financiële instellingen<br />· Omzet hoger dan €300miljoen<br />· Financiering: (Current Ratio): vlottende activa moet twee keer zo hoog zijn als de kort vreemd vermogen<br />· Netto vlottende activa moeten hoog genoeg zijn om de lange termijn schulden te kunnen betalen<br />· Groei van de winst van meer dan 3% per jaar over 7 jaar<br />· Alleen Money Making Machines, dat wil zeggen, bedrijven die de afgelopen 7 jaar elk jaar winstgevend zijn geweest (of in ieder geval positieve cash-flow)<br />· Een koers/winst verhouding van niet meer dan 15<br />· Koers / boekwaarde verhouding van niet meer dan 1,5<br />· Bij voorkeur bedrijven die dividenden uitbetalen<br /><br />Deze criteria zijn afgeleid van Benjamin Graham's meesterwerk: 'De Intelligente Belegger’ pagina 100, Hoofdstuk 4: Algemeen Porfoliobeleid: De Defensieve Belegger </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Graham Number = Wortel uit (15 x Winst per Aandeel x 1,5 x Boekwaarde per Aandeel)</span><br />
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<b>Disclaimer: </b><span style="text-align: justify;">Beleggingsstudieclub ‘Machine
One’ heeft geen winstoogmerk. Beleggen is niet vrij van risico’s, houd er dus rekening
mee dat u (een deel van) uw inleg kunt verliezen. Wij raden aan uitsluitend met
geld te beleggen wat u niet direct nodig heeft. Wanneer u besluit lid te worden
gaat u akkoord met de voorwaarden zoals die in de Statuten van ‘Machine One’
zijn opgenomen.</span></div>
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Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-90393443512161236742045-11-24T16:01:00.000-08:002020-01-03T15:48:41.291-08:00Doel en verwachting (zonder hyperinflatie of deflatie)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcLX65qhWQoAb2IPEiG083QnMEHyTB2BqDlLS_ghsNys168kjCu1OzQeTmOrXO93tnsRYzx24tGd_2epn4krAyBNfu7BcLm3b7c0AdJiLqupk4NiisDq2GQKC83G-4fV-bQw_tO4RoC0o/s1600/19.01+Doel.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="418" height="552" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcLX65qhWQoAb2IPEiG083QnMEHyTB2BqDlLS_ghsNys168kjCu1OzQeTmOrXO93tnsRYzx24tGd_2epn4krAyBNfu7BcLm3b7c0AdJiLqupk4NiisDq2GQKC83G-4fV-bQw_tO4RoC0o/s640/19.01+Doel.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Doelstelling over 30 jaar met eenmalig 1000 en daarna 600 Euro per jaar = een ton per persoon. De resultaat zal hierin per jaar bijgehouden worden.<br />
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Benchmarks om te vergelijken met toename Machine One Bedrijfseconomische (Graham) waarde per persoon.<br />
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2016 Graham waarde toename bovenop inleg:<b> 34% (doel 9%)</b><br />
S&P 500 Total Return (incl. dividenden) in 2016 = 12,0%<br />
AEX Total Return (incl. dividenden) = 12,8 %<br />
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway book value increase: 10,7%<br />
Markel book value increase: 8%<br />
HAL Trust toename nettovermogenswaarde (Net Asset Value): afname 5%<br />
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2017 Graham waarde toename bovenop inleg: <b>35% (doel 9%)</b><br />
S&P 500 Total Return (incl. dividenden) in 2017 = 21,8%<br />
AEX Total Return (incl. dividenden) = 17%<br />
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway book value increase: 23%<br />
Markel book value increase: 13%<br />
HAL Trust toename nettovermogenswaarde (Net Asset Value): < 0%<br />
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2018 Graham waarde toename bovenop inleg: <b>22% (doel 9%)</b><br />
S&P 500 Total Return (incl. dividenden) in 2018 = - 4,4%<br />
AEX Total Return (incl. dividenden) = -8,9%<br />
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway book value increase: 0,4 %<br />
Markel book value increase: - 4,4%<br />
HAL Trust toename nettovermogenswaarde (Net Asset Value): - 9,3%<br />
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2019 Graham waarde toename bovenop inleg: <b>30,5 (doel 9%)</b><br />
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S&P 500 Total Return (incl. dividenden) in 2019 = 30,4%<br />
AEX Total Return (incl. dividenden) = 30,5%<br />
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway book value increase: .. %<br />
Markel book value increase: ...%<br />
HAL Trust toename nettovermogenswaarde (Net Asset Value): ... %</div>
Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-56217426156170595852020-09-08T07:07:00.000-07:002019-03-05T04:59:08.906-08:00Machine One Value Averaging systeem<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Hieronder zie je de schommelingen in mijn oefen portefeuille (Money Making Machines) over de afgelopen 4 1/2 jaar uitgedrukt in Marktwaarde (koersen cq. wat de gek ervoor geeft cq. Mr. Market price oftewel "Quoted value"). Buy and hold stocks, geen re-balancing met obligaties of cash. De grafiek start met 1600 euro: de marktwaarde dat we nu bij Beleggingsstudieclub Machine One per persoon hebben staan.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2St9LvGWsfsAbLRbua5PIshJQg61vI-J9QDuNXOff3t7pCSA1o4W343Mw0HkFPJC-ZLz_oKew2T0OuH_BHY9JsdKCch50UObspyz5AtW8AFN2s3lZimiQYdqHir16lfqz-ir5b3DHwhEq/s1600/Marktwaarde+zonder+inleg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2St9LvGWsfsAbLRbua5PIshJQg61vI-J9QDuNXOff3t7pCSA1o4W343Mw0HkFPJC-ZLz_oKew2T0OuH_BHY9JsdKCch50UObspyz5AtW8AFN2s3lZimiQYdqHir16lfqz-ir5b3DHwhEq/s640/Marktwaarde+zonder+inleg.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Als je een maandelijks inleg hebt, kan je kiezen voor Dollar Cost Averaging. Je koopt elke maand aandelen bij, dat is het advies van de meeste experts. Het is een eenvoudige en bekende manier om emoties uit te schakelen. Hieronder zie je de resultaat met dezelfde portefeuille als hierboven maar met 50 Euro per maand extra inleg.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQr-1Ad_O617mJw7nXUFJ2ngXIt88NK59X9JOQeoRb3led1XccnKp-j_gnCaiAgZCexWaknBYWr3S0FW1VSS8Nr18RXpzN62eSlORzSUQ5Xs0pZnC5PinfvOG5FsrfIMvl-Cl9Fs0lF9Ba/s1600/Backtest+Dollar+Cost+Averaging.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="446" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQr-1Ad_O617mJw7nXUFJ2ngXIt88NK59X9JOQeoRb3led1XccnKp-j_gnCaiAgZCexWaknBYWr3S0FW1VSS8Nr18RXpzN62eSlORzSUQ5Xs0pZnC5PinfvOG5FsrfIMvl-Cl9Fs0lF9Ba/s640/Backtest+Dollar+Cost+Averaging.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Een ander bekende advies voor beleggers is om een vaste percentage aandelen, obligaties en vastgoed aan te houden. Bijvoorbeeld 60% aandelen, 20% obligaties en 20% vastgoed. Als de koersen van aandelen snel gestegen zijn in verhouding met obligaties en vastgoed, dan verkoop je aandelen en omgekeerd. Dit heet re-balancing. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Harvard Professor Michael Edleson bedacht een manier om de 2 werkwijzen te combineren. Zijn methode werkt als volgt: Maak een schatting van een realistisch groei per maand van de bedrijfseconomische (Graham) waarde van de portefeuille. Koop of verkoop elke maand zodat de groei in de marktprijs van je aandelen de geschatte groei van de bedrijfseconomische waarde volgt. Dit heet "Value Averaging". </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Buffett legde onlangs uit dat 12,5% per jaar "reasonable" is. Dat wil zeggen ongeveer 1% groei per maand. Met andere woorden, als je 1000 Euro aandelen hebt, een toename van 10 Euro per maand. Als je 50 Euro inlegt, dan koop je bij totdat de marktwaarde (de Mr. Market price cq. wat de gek ervoor geeft) met 10 + 50 = 60 Euro toeneemt. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Als de koersen sneller zijn gestegen dan 1% (10 Euro) in een maand, dan verkoop je en de cash balans neemt toe met 50 </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">+ de verkoopobrengst.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Na verloop van tijd neemt de 1% toe uitgedrukt in Euros. 1% van 6000 = 60, dat wil zeggen, na 4-5 jaar koop of verkoop je aandelen zodat de Mr. Market price met 60 </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">+ 50 = 110 Euro per maand toeneemt. Mochten de koersen sterk zakken zoals in januari 2016 dan loopt de cash balans naar 0 en ben je 100% in aandelen belegd, totdat </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">de koersen weer stijgen boven de berekende marktwaarde curve.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtrLYpDlz6X8iN-FttWt9Y29xrnLHgzRsGLnjG3BebF8Kg8yWxr82UAv6xc7zmVEHo1ZWLXSbWwhrzzJfb00ls3Vc6bOKaiBD_0L4PGxHP4H0cSxoOF_jKlHMzPHHxLAGPOvwjznCS0MiL/s1600/Backtest+Value+Averaging.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="446" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtrLYpDlz6X8iN-FttWt9Y29xrnLHgzRsGLnjG3BebF8Kg8yWxr82UAv6xc7zmVEHo1ZWLXSbWwhrzzJfb00ls3Vc6bOKaiBD_0L4PGxHP4H0cSxoOF_jKlHMzPHHxLAGPOvwjznCS0MiL/s640/Backtest+Value+Averaging.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Januari 2015 koersen stijgen snel -> sell high en Cash (blauw lijn) stijgt. Koersen dalen snel, buy low, cash neemt af. Eind 2015 na eerste echte schommeling versschil 500 Euro, nu is het verschil (in de backtest) opgelopen naar bijna 1 000 Euro. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">NB: In bovenstaande grafieken zie je nergens de Graham waarde of Margin of Safety. Over het algemeen zullen we meer kopen als koersen laag zijn en de korting hoger is. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Implementatie voor Machine One:</span><br />
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1% Mr. Market<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Datum Inleg toename Koers prijs Cash <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><b>nov-15 €1.000 € 10,00 € 1.010 € 112 <o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><b>dec-15 € 50 € 10,10 € 1.070 € 115 <o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US">jan</span>-16 € 50 € 10,70 € 1.131 € 50 <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>feb-16 € 50 € 11,31 € 1.192 € 12 <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>mrt-16 € 50 € 11,92 € 1.254 € 99 <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>apr-16 € 50 € 12,54 € 1.317 € 65 <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>mei-16 € 50 € 13,17 € 1.380 € 163 <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>jun-16 € 50 € 13,80 € 1.444 <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>jul-16 € 50 € 14,44 € 1.508 <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>aug-16 € 50 € 15,08 € 1.573 <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>sep-16 € 50 € 15,73 € 1.639 <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>okt-16 € 50 € 16,39 € 1.705 <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>nov-16 € 50 € 17,05 € 1.772 <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>dec-16 € 50 € 17,72 € 1.840 ? <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>jan-17 € 50 € 18,40 € 1.908 ? <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>feb-17 € 50 € 19,08 € 1.977 ? <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>mrt-17 € 50 € 19,77 € 2.047 ? <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>apr-17 € 50 € 20,47 € 2.118 ? <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>mei-17 € 50 € 21,18 € 2.189 ? <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>jun-17 € 50 € 21,89 € 2.261 ? <o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>jul-17 € 50 € 22,61 € 2.333 ? <o:p></o:p></b></div>
<b>aug-17 € 50 € 23,33 €2.407 ?</b><br />
<b>sept-17 €50 €24,07 €2.481 € 0</b><br />
<b>okt-17 €50 €24,81 €2.556 € 29</b><br />
<b>nov-17 €50 €25,56 €2.631 €117</b><br />
<b>dec-17 €50 €26,31 €2.707 € 93</b><br />
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jan-18<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 27 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 2.784 € 172<br />
feb-18<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 28 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 2.862 € 262<br />
mrt-18<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 29 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 2.941 € 131<br />
apr-18<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>€ 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 29 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 3.020 € 39<br />
mei-18 € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 30 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 3.101 € 10<br />
jun-18<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 € 31 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 3.182 € 72<br />
jul-18<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 32 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>€ 3 264 € 50 <br />
aug-18<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 33 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 3.346 €76<br />
sep-18<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 33 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>€ 3.429 € 81<br />
okt-18<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 34 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 3.514 € 0<br />
nov-18 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>€ 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>€ 35 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 3.353 € 0<br />
dec-18<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 36 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 3.280 € 0<br />
jan-19<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 37 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 3. € 0<br />
feb-19<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 38 € 3. €.0<br />
mrt-19<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 39<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 3.650 € 0<br />
<b>1% Mr. Market</b><br />
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<b>Datum Inleg toename Koers prijs Cash</b></div>
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apr-19<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 39 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 4.038<br />
mei-19<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 40 € 4.128<br />
jun-19<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 41 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 4.219<br />
jul-19<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 42 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 4.311<br />
aug-19<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 43 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 4.405<br />
sep-19<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 44 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 4.499<br />
okt-19<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 45 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 4.594<br />
nov-19<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 46 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 4.689<br />
dec-19<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 50 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 47 <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> € 4.786<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 375px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 2413; mso-width-source: userset; width: 50pt;" width="66"></col><col style="mso-width-alt: 2450; mso-width-source: userset; width: 50pt;" width="67"></col><col style="mso-width-alt: 3254; mso-width-source: userset; width: 67pt;" width="89"></col><col style="mso-width-alt: 2925; mso-width-source: userset; width: 60pt;" width="80"></col><col style="mso-width-alt: 2669; mso-width-source: userset; width: 55pt;" width="73"></col></colgroup><tbody>
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Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-18638339015814776552020-06-09T06:02:00.000-07:002020-06-09T06:02:53.714-07:00Stand begin juni 2020, Inleg EUR 3 750, Graham Waarde EUR 8 307, Korting 50%Begin april was de korting waarschijnlijk hoger dan 60%. Ik heb het niet goed bijgehouden. Door een daling van de steenkool prijs en olie (tot min $37 in Cushing, Oklahoma op een gegeven moment) is ARLP sterk in prijs gedaald en door Coronavirus en winkelsluitingen was Wereldhave ook gedaald. De koersen zijn inmiddels weer sterk gestegen. <div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJbiGs60f590kRw13rKqiOvIF7CZM16D0aBc8j4GxkHtjRdkQUwa8031S_qNL8Cyq-F_U1a6Z8G2XG212StNovRO0U2yY169KV5Bc-89iH8S_QyZQcePPYRvsArkll038AJj8DsQCxZSU/s468/2020+6+Graham+Value.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="376" data-original-width="468" height="514" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJbiGs60f590kRw13rKqiOvIF7CZM16D0aBc8j4GxkHtjRdkQUwa8031S_qNL8Cyq-F_U1a6Z8G2XG212StNovRO0U2yY169KV5Bc-89iH8S_QyZQcePPYRvsArkll038AJj8DsQCxZSU/w640-h514/2020+6+Graham+Value.png" width="640" /></a></div> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHar4J9bXuhBo2hcI2FUi0xySsmCjGjAaT2SgvzYo0qV3QVU3HdmsE-x34F9XLW5TPNbDEsiym2JNKRIuTcWylWOFzeiTZDEs2Tfh2PFuRJ2iDQlQ8FJ6npMMTzTPGsHSYFEr4qCtZC6g/s442/2020+6+Korting.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="442" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHar4J9bXuhBo2hcI2FUi0xySsmCjGjAaT2SgvzYo0qV3QVU3HdmsE-x34F9XLW5TPNbDEsiym2JNKRIuTcWylWOFzeiTZDEs2Tfh2PFuRJ2iDQlQ8FJ6npMMTzTPGsHSYFEr4qCtZC6g/w640-h434/2020+6+Korting.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh882kY4jSlzSWkiMuZhFUafKoiJ9ittX_fgbP-Vu7O2ttoAosUjowus9BaHfZqeLrn5USBpxJImHFBau4Rf9pNSYtsRd-h5gaApCtxQkZS8YGpjxWToiH4gdPHgiykuTmLvxqrfyXdP18/s436/2020+6+holdings.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="436" data-original-width="320" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh882kY4jSlzSWkiMuZhFUafKoiJ9ittX_fgbP-Vu7O2ttoAosUjowus9BaHfZqeLrn5USBpxJImHFBau4Rf9pNSYtsRd-h5gaApCtxQkZS8YGpjxWToiH4gdPHgiykuTmLvxqrfyXdP18/w294-h400/2020+6+holdings.png" width="294" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Inleg moet zijn EUR 3750<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div>Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-47608377215724988002020-03-09T05:44:00.003-07:002020-03-09T05:44:42.072-07:00Stand begin maart 2020, Inleg EUR 3 550 (+ EUR 500), Graham Waarde EUR 9 104, Korting 59%Coronavirus paniek en dalende olieprijzen. De afgelopen jaren heb ik fouten gemaakt waardoor de "wat de gek ervoor geeft" waarde niet is toegenomen en zelfs behoorlijk afgenomen.<br />
Grootse fout met name wat Peter Lynch noemde: "Watering the weeds and cutting the flowers"<br />
-bedrijven met schuld bijgekocht die niet Graham Defensive zijn<br />
-goede bedrijven zoals ASMI en Tesla te snel verkocht<br />
-bedrijven gekocht in stervende industrieen (value traps)<br />
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<br />Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-23849063178227421342020-02-04T13:11:00.006-08:002020-02-04T13:18:52.593-08:00Stand begin februari 2020, Inleg EUR 3 550, Graham Waarde EUR 8 014, Korting 49%Het lijkt erop dat "value" aandelen (lage Prijs / Boekwaarde en lage Koers / Winst verhouding) op moment uit de mode zijn.<br />
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Opvallend is onder andere B&G Foods (Ticker BGS) uit de VS. 12% dividend (niet veilig?) en veel schulden (niet Graham Defensive) maar in principe in een stabiele bedrijfstak. Ben benieuwd naar de komende kwartaal cijfers.<br />
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Ook vastgoed bedrijf Wereldhave lijkt goedkoop, hier ook teveel schuld om echt Graham Defensive te noemen. Er komt as vrijdag nieuws.<br />
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<br />Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-88936877685195998532020-01-03T08:32:00.001-08:002020-01-03T08:32:19.088-08:00Stand januari 2020, Inleg EUR 3 500, Graham Waarde EUR 7 832, Korting 45%Tesla verkocht (Margin of Safety toevallig vandaag min 420%) en KRKA weer gekocht. Spirit Airlines bijgekocht dag na VS aanval op Bagdad Airport.<br />
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Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-34102830814462206262019-12-04T08:17:00.003-08:002019-12-04T08:17:51.663-08:00Stand december 2019, Inleg EUR 3 450, Graham Waarde EUR 7 080, Korting 40%Spirit Airlines, ticker SAVE en B&G Foods zijn nieuw. B&S Group is de grootste positie in marktwaarde (wat de gek ervoor geeft).<br />
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Typos B&S Foods is B&G Foods...Inleg EUR 3450</div>
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<br />Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-59199238418595357122019-11-15T10:13:00.004-08:002019-11-15T10:13:37.713-08:00Stand november 2019, Inleg EUR 3 400, Graham Waarde EUR 7 083, Korting 42%<h3 class="post-title entry-title" itemprop="name" style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 24px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0.75em 0px 0px; position: relative;">
<span style="font-size: 15.4px;">We moesten onze rekening opheffen bij DeGiro dat geen beleggingsstudieclubs wilde helpen. Ansgar John zet een trackrecord voort met behulp van een eigen prive DeGiro rekening. Alliance Resource Partners ticker ARLP, een steenkool mijn bedrijf in de VS is nieuw. De paniek in de branche is heel hoog op dit moment.</span></h3>
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Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-64932703195309437832019-09-10T06:15:00.004-07:002019-09-10T06:15:36.547-07:00Stand september 2019, Inleg EUR 3 300, Graham Waarde EUR 6 858, Korting 46%We hebben Outokumpu met verlies verkocht, Het leek goedkoop toen we het kochten, maar voldoet niet aan de Graham Defensieve criteria: teveel schuld en niet consequent winstgevend over 10 jaar.<br />
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ASM International is op 1 symbolisch aandeel na, helemaal verkocht. We hebben veel Miller Industries bijgekocht een beetje Nationale Nederlanden, Natural Alternatives en United Natural Foods (UNFI).<br />
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Punten van aandacht: 1. "Wat de gek ervoor geeft" de marktprijs per participant is flink afgenomen sinds begin 2018. Dit is frustrerend. Het hangt samen met verliezen op bedrijven die niet voldeden aan Graham Criteria, een enkele verliezer die er wel aan voldeed. Daarnaast zijn de koersen van "value" aandelen relatief laag.<br />
2. De transactie kosten zijn te hoog omdat John teveel kleine transacties deed. EUR 895 in 2018. Minder transactie kosten is meer winst per Machinist.<br />
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<br />Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-20904606664515833942019-08-28T02:58:00.003-07:002019-08-28T02:58:53.134-07:00Boskalis intrinsic value at the price where the CEO has bought shares.The CEO of Boskalis yesterday bought EUR 975 000,- worth of shares around this price of EUR 17,50. That is slightly lower than the current book value of EUR 18,50 per share and slightly higher than than the current Graham Value which is lower than book due to low Earnings per Share at the moment.<br />
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Graham Defensive Analysis based on Chapter 14 of the Intelligent Investor:<br />
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<b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">SECTOR: </b><span id="tabledatafont" style="font-family: georgia, utopia, "palatino linotype", palatino, serif; font-size: 12px;"><span style="color: green;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica;">[PASS] </span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> <b>Boskalis</b> is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: georgia, utopia, "palatino linotype", palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;"></span><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">SALES: </b><span style="color: green; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">[PASS]</span><span style="color: red; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. <b>Boskalis'</b></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> sales of </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>€2 569 million</b></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">, based on 2018 sales, passes this test.</span><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=10810735" name="anchor3" style="color: #888888; font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-decoration-line: none;"></a><br style="font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;" /><br style="font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;" /><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">CURRENT RATIO:</b><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span><span id="tabledatafont" style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><span style="color: red;">[FAIL] </span></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. </span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Boskalis's</b><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> current ratio €1 812m/€1 948m of </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>0.9 </b></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">fails this test.</span><br style="font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;" /><br style="font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;" /><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: </b><span style="color: red; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">[FAIL]</span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for </span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Boskalis</b><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> is </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>€356 million</b></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">, while the net current assets are - </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>€444</b></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> million. </span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Boskalis</b><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> fails this test.</span></div>
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<br style="font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;" /><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: </b><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span><span style="color: red; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">[FAIL]</span><span style="color: red; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>Boskalis posted a loss in 2016 and 2018 and thus fails this test. </b></span><br style="font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;" /><br style="font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;" /><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Earnings Yield: </b><span style="color: red; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">[FAIL] </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. <b>Boskalis</b></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>'s</b></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> E/P of 4</span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>%</b></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> (using average earning over 3 years) fails this test.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Graham Number value:</b><span id="tabledatafont" style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><span style="color: green;"> </span></span><span style="color: red; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">[FAIL]</span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><span style="color: green;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price.</span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> <b>Boskalis</b></span><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </b><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">has a Graham number of </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">√</span></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">(15 x €0,65 EPS x 1,5 x €18,5 Book Value) = €16 </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>Dividend:</b> ?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>Conclusion: </b> Now might be a good time to buy. HAL Trust, for example, has recently expanded its ownership to more than 40% of Boskalis. Not for the Graham Defensive Investor and not what Warren Buffett would call a "wonderful" company.</span></div>
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Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-28734514874243658162019-08-27T06:52:00.000-07:002019-08-27T06:52:56.595-07:00Miller Industries stock Price and Intrinsic ValueUsing Gurufocus data: Graham Value is calculated using 3 year weighted average of Earnings per Share x 15 multiple and 1,5 x book value per share. The Graham Value is the geometric average of both numbers.<br />
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<br />Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-21494901155354007912019-08-13T06:23:00.001-07:002019-08-13T06:23:36.149-07:00Aalberts intrinsic Value and stock Price based on Benjamin Graham Defensive analysis <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Note: The graph does not include reinvested dividends. The arrow shows January 2008.</div>
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See more Aalberts graphs here: <a href="http://sinaas.blogspot.com/2018/05/aalberts-growing-exponentially-as.html">http://sinaas.blogspot.com/2018/05/aalberts-growing-exponentially-as.html</a></div>
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Aalberts Graham Defensive Analysis:</div>
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<b style="font-size: 15.4px;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">SECTOR:</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> <span style="color: green;">[PASS] </span><b><span style="color: black;">Aalberts</span></b> is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. </span></div>
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<b style="font-size: 15.4px;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">SALES:</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> <span style="color: green;">[PASS] </span>The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. <b><span style="color: black;">Aalberts'</span></b> sales of <b><span style="color: black;">€2,758 million</span></b>, based on 2018 sales, pass this test.</span></div>
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<b style="font-size: 15.4px;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">CURRENT RATIO:</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> <span style="color: red;">[FAIL]</span><span style="color: green;"> </span>The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. <b><span style="color: black;">Aalberts'</span></b> current ratio €1 210m/€1 001m of <b><span style="color: black;">1.2</span></b> fails the test.</span></div>
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<b style="font-size: 15.4px;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS:</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> <span style="color: red;">[FAIL]</span><span style="color: green;"> </span>For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for <b><span style="color: black;">Aalberts</span></b> is <b><span style="color: black;">€741 million</span></b>, while the net current assets are <b><span style="color: black;">€209</span></b> million. <b><span style="color: black;">Aalberts</span></b> fails this test.</span></div>
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<b style="font-size: 15.4px;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH:</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> <span style="color: green;">[PASS] </span>Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. <b><span style="color: black;">Aalberts'</span></b> EPS growth over that period of 155<b><span style="color: black;">%</span></b> passes the EPS growth test.</span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">EARNINGS YIELD:</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: green; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"><span style="color: green;">[PASS] </span>The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. </span><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">Aalberts's</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> E/P of 7</span><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">%</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> (using the average of last 3 years) passes this test.</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman", serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman", serif;"><br /></span><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">GRAHAM NUMBER VALUE:</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: green; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: red; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">[FAIL]</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: green; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt;">The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. <b>Aalberts </b>has a Graham number of √(15 x €2,2 EPS x 1,5 x €15,2 Book Value) = €28</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><b>Dividend: Aalberts </b>currently pays a dividend of 75 cents. 0,75/34 = 2%</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><b>Conclusion May 2018 at 43 Euros</b>: A bit too much debt, price (koers) a bit too high at the moment. Start buying only if near 30 Euros.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><b>Conclusion August 2019</b> at Eur 34, this could be a good time to buy. </span></span></div>
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Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-10070705730248155402019-08-08T09:19:00.000-07:002019-08-08T09:19:24.175-07:00Assured Guaranty ticker AGO a "cannibal" that is shooting fish in a barrel.<div class="p p1" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Verdana, Arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">“When companies with outstanding businesses and comfortable financial positions find their shares selling far below intrinsic value in the marketplace, no alternative action can benefit shareholders as surely as repurchases.”</em></div>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">--Warren Buffett, 1984 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report</em></div>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">“Pay attention to the cannibals.”</em></div>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">-- Charlie Munger</em><br />
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<a href="http://hideyourarms.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/practice_range_new1-480x360.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://hideyourarms.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/practice_range_new1-480x360.jpg" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="480" height="300" width="400" /></a></div>
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Assured Guaranty has $6 722m in equity (book value) and 99m shares outstanding.</div>
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$6 722m book divided by 99m shares = $68 book value per share.</div>
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The share price is $46 per share and the company is buying back $300m in shares. </div>
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Equity will decrease by $300m to $6 422m due to money being spent on shares. At the price, $300m / $46 per share, they can buy back 6,5m shares. Bringing the share count down to 99m - 6,5m = 92,5m shares</div>
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New book value per share: $6 422m / 92,5m = $69,4 a 2% increase.</div>
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Earnings per share should increase by 7% <b>assuming</b> the decrease in book value doesn't hurt profits. </div>
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<i>Like shooting fish in a barrel with the water taken out. </i></div>
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Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-51821505387653668492019-08-06T03:20:00.000-07:002019-08-06T03:20:07.749-07:00Royal Dutch Shell $RDS Benjamin Graham valuation<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUa3zSChjx2GqlllE868G7c2C22uXWblEEjGX4TjGsCL_c78kp23aaQGyHP1wKQPQp3AL2Va9kPZTNlIw6Ag_DLqnC3YNbLJRr_otXSpw8Ko_4h3JZdcH0FjvK4oziLIAn4jolMvthq7w/s1600/Rd+Shell+2019.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="227" data-original-width="327" height="444" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUa3zSChjx2GqlllE868G7c2C22uXWblEEjGX4TjGsCL_c78kp23aaQGyHP1wKQPQp3AL2Va9kPZTNlIw6Ag_DLqnC3YNbLJRr_otXSpw8Ko_4h3JZdcH0FjvK4oziLIAn4jolMvthq7w/s640/Rd+Shell+2019.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;">Royal Dutch Shell's share price is lower than in 2002, but if you have owned the stock and reinvested dividends than you would have made money. The current sales are quite incredible at $390b last year, comparable to the Gross Domestic Product of countries like Norway or Austria.</b><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"><br /></b><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;">SECTOR:</b><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"> </span><span id="tabledatafont" style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"><span style="color: green;">[PASS] </span></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"><b>RDS.A</b></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"> is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. </span><br /><div style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.56px; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">SALES:</b><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span><span id="tabledatafont" style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><span style="color: green;">[PASS] </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>RDS.A's</b></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> sales of </span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>$388,000 million</b></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">, based on 2018 sales, pass this test.</span><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=10810735" name="anchor3" style="color: #888888; font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-decoration-line: none;"></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">CURRENT RATIO:</b><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span><span id="tabledatafont" style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><span style="color: red;">[FAIL] </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>RDS.A's</b></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> current ratio<b> $93,000m/$84,000m</b> of </span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>1.1</b></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> fails the test.</span><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=10810735" name="anchor4" style="color: #888888; font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-decoration-line: none;"></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS:</b><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span><span id="tabledatafont" style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><span style="color: red;">[FAIL] </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for </span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>RDS.A</b></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> is $</span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>128,000 million</b></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">, while the net </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">current assets are <b>$9,000</b></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b> million</b>. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>RDS.A</b></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> fails this test.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH:</b><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span></span><span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">[FAIL] </span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>RDS.A's</b></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> EPS decline over that period</span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> fails the EPS growth test.</span></div>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">EARNINGS YIELD:</b><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span></span><span style="color: green; font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">[PASS]</span><span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>RDS.A's</b></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> E/P of 8</span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>%</b></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> (using the average of the last 3 years earnings) passes this test.</span></div>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Graham Number value: </b><span style="color: green; font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">[PASS] </span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> <b>RDS.A</b></span><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </b><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">has a Graham number of </span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.56px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">√</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">(15 x €2,2 EPS x 1,5 x €22 Book Value) = €32 and passes this test.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Dividend: 1,7/24 = 7% but the oil and gas prices have to not decrease too much for Shell to be able to keep paying this dividend.</span></div>
Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-9319868492173814692019-08-03T14:25:00.001-07:002019-08-03T14:25:49.001-07:00Stand augustus 2019, Inleg EUR 3 250, Graham Waarde EUR 6 478, Korting 46%De koers van ASML is van EUR 35 naar EUR 75 gestegen iets boven de Graham Waarde en we hebben bijna alles verkocht. We hebben United Natural Foods bijgekocht dat nu heel goedkoop lijkt te zijn. Een BOM (Bank of Montreal) analist Kelly Bania zegt dat het maar $5 waard is per aandeel, hoewel ze zei 2 jaar geleden dat het $50 waard was. Onze schatting is $37 en de koers was vrijdag even $7,60 ... Interessant. Ook de koers van NN Groep is gedaald en we hebben bijgekocht. Daardoor is de Graham Waarde gestegen evenals de Korting. Als het goed blijft gaan met United Natural Foods, dan is het van belang om niet te snel te verkopen. => Marshmellow Test.<br />
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<br />Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-50712196182484197592019-07-04T00:03:00.001-07:002019-07-04T00:03:19.721-07:00Stand juli 2019, Inleg EUR 3 200, Graham Waarde EUR 6 173, Korting 42%Steinhoff had slechte resultaten in 2018, de schulden zijn sterk gestegen, het draait verlies. Graham Waarde schatting is door Yves Viegen op 0,- gezet en we gaan misschien Steinhoff verkopen, afhankelijk van een Strawpoll dat sluit vanavond om 22:22. United Natural Foods (UNFI) had een goede kwartaal maar de koers is gedaald van $15 in februari naar $8,20 afgelopen maand, waardoor we aandelen voordelig konden inkopen. Ook Cato Corp lijkt voordelig op dit moment, met een EBIT/EV Earnings Yield van 33% en een dividend van 11%. We hebben Thalassa Holdings (met moeite) verkocht omdat het niet winstgevend is na de verkoop van de hoofdactiviteit en hebben B&S Group uit Dordrecht gekocht een bedrijf die sterk groeit en een hoge rendement op boekwaarde heeft (30% Return on Equity) maar een lagere Graham waarde.<br />
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<br />Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-13208116284558311672019-06-05T08:31:00.002-07:002019-06-05T08:31:38.497-07:00Stand juni 2019, Inleg EUR 3 150, Graham Waarde EUR 6 038, Korting 43%We proberen Thalassa Holdings te verkopen, maar het is niet liquide. Er worden (bijna) geen aandelen verhandeld. We hebben veel andelen NN Groep bijgekocht. Nieuw is Nederlandse handelsbedrijf B&S Group. De koers van United Natural Foods (UNFI) is (weer) sterk gedaald, UNFI kwartaal cijfers komen vanavond na sluiting van de Amerikaanse beurs.<br />
Opvallend is de hoge korting op dit moment.<br />
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<br />Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-4136394904584295232019-05-17T01:52:00.001-07:002019-05-17T01:52:25.890-07:00Bubble watch 2019 WeWork and The RabbitIt is 2 decades since the dotcom bubble and with hindsight it is easy to see how ridiculous market caps of Cisco Systems et al were in the year 2000 by using Peter Lynch charts.<br />
Yesterday Jeff Koon's Rabbit was sold for $91m the highest price ever for a living artist, beating Hockney.<br />
WeWork has filed for a >$50b IPO.<br />
The company is seen as a competitor of Regus office space rental, but is also a social network based on the kibbutz and commune childhoods of the founders.<br />
But just to get an idea of orders of magnitude, some back of the envelope math:<br />
WeWork rents out 1m Square meters of office space. Say they earn a hefty net profit of €100/m per year, then earnings would be $100m multiple by a multiple of 20 and you get an intrinsic value guesstimate of $2b.<br />
The IPO is 25x...<br />
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Another angle: WeWork has 400k members. What are investors paying per member?<br />
Price $50b / 400k = One Hundred and Twenty-Five Thousand Dollars per member.<br />
Life Time Value? Membership is $50 per month x 12 months is $600 per year. Times 10 = Six Thousand Dollars and that's Sales not Net Profit...<br />
Also 25x too expensive.<br />
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One could argue WeWork is part of a "Unicorn" bubble. Check back in the year 2029. Also curious to see Aswath Damadorans take at Musing on Markets.<br />
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<br />Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-7457231779560445282019-05-13T08:10:00.002-07:002019-05-13T08:20:04.409-07:00Stand mei 2019, Inleg €3 100, Graham Waarde €5 942, korting 41%<div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 22px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; position: relative;">
We hebben onder anderen NN Group bijgekocht en hebben weer Hibbett Sports gekocht.</div>
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Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-47170967288621364042019-03-26T05:04:00.002-07:002019-03-26T05:04:39.014-07:00Stand april 2019, Inleg €3 050, Graham Waarde €5 830, korting 39% We hebben BMW3 Preferred shares bijgekocht onder €62, we hebben ASM International deels verkocht boven €48. De afschrijvingen op boekwaarde bij United Natural Foods (leverancier van supermarkten in de VS) viel mee na de overname van SuperValu. Hierdoor is de Graham waarde sterk gestegen in maart. We hebben een budget van €2 100 (inclusief te ontvangen dividenden) om aandelen (bij) te kopen. Thor Industries onder $60 is een mogelijkheid. Reliance Steel & Aluminium (ticker RS) heeft een 100% Graham Defensive score bij Validea en zit in de AAII screen.<br />
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<br />Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-83244965724581093022019-03-07T07:18:00.000-08:002019-03-07T07:18:21.555-08:00Corbion Benjamin Graham intrinsic value analysis<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;">Expenses and long-term debt increased in 2018. The company is opening PLA plants in Thailand and Europe. I don't understand the business or prospects.</b></div>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;">Benjamin Graham Defensive Analysis:</b></h1>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;">SECTOR: </b><span id="tabledatafont" style="font-family: georgia, utopia, "palatino linotype", palatino, serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"><span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: red; font-family: arial, helvetica; line-height: 16.8px;">[FAIL]</span></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"> <b>Corbion</b> is a bio-technology company? and therefore Benjamin Graham would consider it too risky. </span><br /><div style="background-color: #fff9ee; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;">
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: georgia, utopia, "palatino linotype", palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;"></span><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">SALES: </b><span style="color: green; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">[PASS]</span><span style="color: red; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. <b>Corbion's</b></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> sales of </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>€897 million</b></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">, based on 2018 sales, pass this test.</span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=10810735" name="anchor3" style="color: #888888; font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-decoration-line: none;"></a><br /><br style="font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;" /><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">CURRENT RATIO:</b><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"> </b><span id="tabledatafont" style="font-family: georgia, utopia, "palatino linotype", palatino, serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"><span style="color: red; font-family: arial, helvetica; line-height: 16.8px;">[FAIL]</span></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. </span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Corbion's</b><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> current ratio €350m/€260m of </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>1,3 is not good enough</b></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">.</span><br /><b style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></b><b style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: </b><span style="color: green; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"></span><span id="tabledatafont" style="font-family: georgia, utopia, "palatino linotype", palatino, serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"><span style="color: red; font-family: arial, helvetica; line-height: 16.8px;">[FAIL]</span></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"> </span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;">For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for </span><b style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;">Corbion</b><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"> is </span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"><b>€185 million</b></span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;">, while the net current assets are </span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"><b>€90</b></span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"> million. </span><b style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;">Corbion</b><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"> fails this test.</span></div>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></b><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: </b><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span><span style="color: red; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16.8px;">[FAIL]</span><span style="color: red; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><b>Corbion's</b></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> earnings have not increased much over the past ten years and it has made losses recently.</span><br /><br style="font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;" /><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Earnings Yield: </b><span style="color: red; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16.8px;">[FAIL] </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;">The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"><b>Corbion's</b></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"> E/P of 4</span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"><b>%</b></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"> (using the average over the past 3 years Earnings) fails this test.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Graham Number value:</b><span id="tabledatafont" style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><span style="color: green;"> </span></span><span style="color: red; font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16.8px;">[FAIL] </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"><span style="color: green;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;">The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;">That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price.</span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"> <b>Corbion</b></span><b style="font-family: Arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;"> </b><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;">has a Graham number of </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;">√</span></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px; line-height: 21.56px;">(15 x €1,3 EPS x 1,5 x €8,9 Book Value) = €16 </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: georgia, utopia, "palatino linotype", palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;"></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Dividend: €0,56/€27 = 2% </span><br /><br style="font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;" /><span style="font-family: georgia, utopia, "palatino linotype", palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px; line-height: 21.56px;">Conclusion March 2019: The stock doesn't seem cheap. Not for the Graham Defensive investor.</span></div>
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Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-70820917140029712542019-03-05T05:51:00.004-08:002019-03-05T05:51:51.642-08:00Stand maart 2019, inleg €3 000, Graham Waarde €5 547, korting 34%We hebben nu EUR 2 023 cash (126 per persoon). Budget is 100% in aandelen. Aankoop eind maart? Goede resultaten van onder andere ASM International, Miller Industries en Assured Guaranty drijft winst per aandeel en boekwaarde omhoog waardoor Graham Waarde stijgt.<br />
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Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-89762629647748426542019-02-22T18:11:00.000-08:002019-03-05T05:46:03.857-08:00Inner Scorecard 2018<span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: medium;">Hou niet van schulden. Hoge schuld is hoge risico. </span><br />
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United Natural Foods =>opeens hoge schuld, dramatisch keldering</div>
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Outokumpo idem</div>
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BMW idem</div>
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Steinhoff idem</div>
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Een goed bedrijf produceert cash en neemt weinig risico's met hoge schulden. </div>
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Bayer veel schulden</div>
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Flexsteel ook een verliespost. Boekte winst door voorraad te produceren maar verkocht niets. Cash is king. Had ik niet meer van moeten kopen. </div>
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Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4483136061494849130.post-90514091535145180932019-02-05T08:55:00.001-08:002019-02-05T08:55:50.606-08:00Stand februari 2019, inleg €2 950, Graham Waarde €5 462, korting 37%<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
We hebben Cato Corporation gekocht een familiebedrijf met dames mode winkels. 9% dividend, veel cash op het balans en geen schulden. Tevens een extra aandeel Tesla, dat pas goedkoop is als de groei een paar jaar evensnel zal gaan. De aankoop hiervan was terecht omstreden.</div>
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We hebben nu 20 aandelen, het streven is om 1 aandeel per machinist te hebben. De vraag is wat moeten/kunnen we nu verkopen?</div>
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Doordat de koersen in januari gestegen zijn, is de Margin of Safety afgenomen. Het was veiliger om eind december 2018 aandelen te kopen dan vandaag.</div>
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<br />Ansgar John Brenninkmeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12649381157874260095noreply@blogger.com0