Boskalis intrinsic value at the price where the CEO has bought shares.

The CEO of Boskalis yesterday bought EUR 975 000,- worth of shares around this price of EUR 17,50. That is slightly lower than the current book value of EUR 18,50 per share and slightly higher than than the current Graham Value which is lower than book due to low Earnings per Share at the moment.

 Graham Defensive Analysis based on Chapter 14 of the Intelligent Investor:

SECTOR: [PASS]  Boskalis is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Boskalis' sales of €2 569 million, based on 2018 sales, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Boskalis's current ratio €1 812m/€1 948m of 0.9 fails this test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Boskalis is €356 million, while the net current assets are - €444 million. Boskalis fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH:  [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Boskalis posted a loss in 2016 and 2018 and thus fails this test. 

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Boskalis's E/P of 4% (using average earning over 3 years) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Boskalis has a Graham number of √(15 x €0,65 EPS x 1,5 x €18,5 Book Value) = €16 

Dividend: ?

Conclusion:  Now might be a good time to buy. HAL Trust, for example, has recently expanded its ownership to more than 40% of Boskalis. Not for the Graham Defensive Investor and not what Warren Buffett would call a "wonderful" company.

Miller Industries stock Price and Intrinsic Value

Using Gurufocus data: Graham Value is calculated using 3 year weighted average of Earnings per Share x 15 multiple and 1,5 x book value per share. The Graham Value is the geometric average of both numbers.

Aalberts intrinsic Value and stock Price based on Benjamin Graham Defensive analysis

Note: The graph does not include reinvested dividends. The arrow shows January 2008.

See more Aalberts graphs here: http://sinaas.blogspot.com/2018/05/aalberts-growing-exponentially-as.html

Aalberts Graham Defensive Analysis:

SECTOR: [PASS] Aalberts is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS]  The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Aalberts' sales of €2,758 million, based on 2018 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Aalberts' current ratio €1 210m/€1 001m of 1.2 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for Aalberts is €741 million, while the net current assets are €209 million. Aalberts fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Aalberts' EPS growth over that period of 155% passes the EPS growth test.

EARNINGS YIELD: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Aalberts's E/P of 7% (using the average of last 3 years) passes this test.

GRAHAM NUMBER VALUE:  [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Aalberts has a Graham number of √(15 x €2,2 EPS x 1,5 x €15,2 Book Value) = €28

Dividend: Aalberts currently pays a dividend of 75 cents. 0,75/34 = 2%

Conclusion May 2018 at 43 Euros: A bit too much debt, price (koers) a bit too high at the moment. Start buying only if near 30 Euros.

Conclusion August 2019 at Eur 34, this could be a good time to buy. 

Assured Guaranty ticker AGO a "cannibal" that is shooting fish in a barrel.

“When companies with outstanding businesses and comfortable financial positions find their shares selling far below intrinsic value in the marketplace, no alternative action can benefit shareholders as surely as repurchases.”

--Warren Buffett, 1984 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report

“Pay attention to the cannibals.”

-- Charlie Munger

Assured Guaranty has $6 722m in equity (book value) and 99m shares outstanding.

$6 722m book divided by 99m shares = $68 book value per share.

The share price is $46 per share and the company is buying back $300m in shares. 

Equity will decrease by $300m to $6 422m due to money being spent on shares. At the price, $300m / $46 per share, they can buy back 6,5m shares. Bringing the share count down to 99m - 6,5m = 92,5m shares

New book value per share: $6 422m / 92,5m = $69,4 a 2% increase.

Earnings per share should increase by 7% assuming the decrease in book value doesn't hurt profits. 

Like shooting fish in a barrel with the water taken out. 

Royal Dutch Shell $RDS Benjamin Graham valuation

Royal Dutch Shell's share price is lower than in 2002, but if you have owned the stock and reinvested dividends than you would have made money. The current sales are quite incredible at $390b last year, comparable to the Gross Domestic Product of countries like Norway or Austria.
SECTOR: [PASS]  RDS.A is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. RDS.A's sales of $388,000 million, based on 2018 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. RDS.A's current ratio $93,000m/$84,000m of 1.1 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for RDS.A is $128,000 million, while the net current assets are $9,000 million. RDS.A fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. RDS.A's EPS decline over that period fails the EPS growth test.

EARNINGS YIELD:  [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. RDS.A's E/P of 8% (using the average of the last 3 years earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. RDS.A has a Graham number of √(15 x €2,2 EPS x 1,5 x €22 Book Value) = €32 and passes this test.

Dividend: 1,7/24 = 7% but the oil and gas prices have to not decrease too much for Shell to be able to keep paying this dividend.

Stand augustus 2019, Inleg EUR 3 250, Graham Waarde EUR 6 478, Korting 46%

De koers van ASML is van EUR 35 naar EUR 75 gestegen iets boven de Graham Waarde en we hebben bijna alles verkocht. We hebben United Natural Foods bijgekocht dat nu heel goedkoop lijkt te zijn. Een BOM (Bank of Montreal) analist Kelly Bania zegt dat het maar $5 waard is per aandeel, hoewel ze zei 2 jaar geleden dat het $50 waard was. Onze schatting is $37 en de koers was vrijdag even $7,60 ... Interessant. Ook de koers van NN Groep is gedaald en we hebben bijgekocht. Daardoor is de Graham Waarde gestegen evenals de Korting. Als het goed blijft gaan met United Natural Foods, dan is het van belang om niet te snel te verkopen. => Marshmellow Test.