zondag 6 januari 2019

De waarde van elke investering volgens Buffett

Buffett: "Any investment is worth all the cash you're going to get out between now and judgement day discounted back."

"De waarde van elke investering is al het geld dat je eruit krijgt tussen nu en de dag des oordeels verdisconteerd terug naar vandaag."

Buffett: "Aesop, in between tortoises and hares, and all these other things he found time to write about birds. And he said, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." Now that isn't quite complete because the question is, how sure are you that there are two in the bush, and how long do you have to wait to get them out? Now, he probably knew that but he just didn't have time because he had all these other parables to write and had to get on with it. But he was halfway there in 600 BC. That's all there is to investing is, how many birds are in the bush, when are you going to get them out, and how sure are you?
Now if interest rates are 15 percent, roughly, you've got to get two birds out of the bush in five years to equal the bird in the hand. But if interest rates are 3 percent, and you can get two birds out in 20 years, it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand, because it all gets back to discounting against an interest rate. The problem is often you don't know not only how many birds are in the bush, but in the case of the internet companies there weren't any birds in the bush. But they still take the bird that you give them if they're in the hand.
But I actually have written about this sort of thing, and stealing heavily from Aesop who wrote it some 2600 years ago, but I've been behind on my reading. Yeah?"

vrijdag 4 januari 2019

Peter Lynch diagram logarithmic vs linear for Apple plus buyback back of the envelope math

Gurufocus introduced me to the idea of "Peter Lynch" charts. This isn't "technical analysis" of a stock's price, but a comparison between price and a part of value determination. One is the scoreboard (price), the other what is happening on the playing field (how is the company doing). Gurufocus uses linear charts, so it often seems as if the recent past was the best (steepest curve).

Lynch himself preferred logarithmic charts where you get a better grasp of the actual relative rate of growth. Francisco Parames also uses Peter Lynch diagrams for European stocks,  Parames like Lynch and unlike Gurufocus, uses a logarithmic scale. 
 I use a weighted Earnings per Share over 3 years in this logarithmic Peter Lynch graph for Apple:
Surprisingly, the 4 years before the iPhone launch in the second half of 2007 seemed to be better for investors than the first 4 years after the iPhone was first introduced...

Here is a linear chart I made in 2013 when the price was $400, adjusted for the 7-1 stock split in 2014 that would be: $57, not a bad price considering today's price of $142 but also considering earnings at the time.

The question is: "What do you expect in a couple of years? Earnings?" In this case Earnings per Share (as a Shareholder that is more important to me than total company earnings).

I don't know how the company will do.

Stupid assumption 1: Unchanged earnings. Say $50b a year.

There are 4,8b shares outstanding. Price is $142 per share. Cash $130b.

Stupid assumption number 2: Unchanged stock price.

Apple's CEO Tim Cook has said he will use cash to buy shares (and pay dividends).

$130b cash @$142 per share = 0,92b share buy back.

Share count: 4,8b - 0,92b = 3,9b shares

Buyback per year: $50b @$142 per share = 0,35b

Shares end of year 1: 3,9b - 0,35b = 3,55b

Earnings per share: $50b/3,55 shares = $14 EPS end of year 1

Shares end of year 2: 3,55b - 0,35b share buyback = 3,2b

Earnings per share: $50b/3,2b = $15,6 EPS end of year 2

Earnings per share: $50b/2,85b shares = $17,54 end of year 3

Earnings per share: $50b/2,5 shares = $20 end of year 4

Earnings per share: $50/2,15 = $23 end of year 5