dinsdag 13 augustus 2019

Aalberts intrinsic Value and stock Price based on Benjamin Graham Defensive analysis

Note: The graph does not include reinvested dividends. The arrow shows January 2008.
Aalberts Graham Defensive Analysis:
SECTOR: [PASS] Aalberts is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 
SALES: [PASS]  The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Aalberts' sales of €2,758 million, based on 2018 sales, pass this test.
CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Aalberts' current ratio €1 210m/€1 001m of 1.2 fails the test.
LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for Aalberts is €741 million, while the net current assets are €209 million. Aalberts fails this test.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Aalberts' EPS growth over that period of 155% passes the EPS growth test.
EARNINGS YIELD: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Aalberts's E/P of 7% (using the average of last 3 years) passes this test.

GRAHAM NUMBER VALUE:  [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Aalberts has a Graham number of √(15 x €2,2 EPS x 1,5 x €15,2 Book Value) = €28

Dividend: Aalberts currently pays a dividend of 75 cents. 0,75/34 = 2%

Conclusion May 2018 at 43 Euros: A bit too much debt, price (koers) a bit too high at the moment. Start buying only if near 30 Euros.

Conclusion August 2019 at Eur 34, this could be a good time to buy. 

donderdag 8 augustus 2019

Assured Guaranty ticker AGO a "cannibal" that is shooting fish in a barrel.

“When companies with outstanding businesses and comfortable financial positions find their shares selling far below intrinsic value in the marketplace, no alternative action can benefit shareholders as surely as repurchases.”
--Warren Buffett, 1984 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report
“Pay attention to the cannibals.”
-- Charlie Munger


Assured Guaranty has $6 722m in equity (book value) and 99m shares outstanding.
$6 722m book divided by 99m shares = $68 book value per share.
The share price is $46 per share and the company is buying back $300m in shares. 
Equity will decrease by $300m to $6 422m due to money being spent on shares. At the price, $300m / $46 per share, they can buy back 6,5m shares. Bringing the share count down to 99m - 6,5m = 92,5m shares
New book value per share: $6 422m / 92,5m = $69,4 a 2% increase.
Earnings per share should increase by 7% assuming the decrease in book value doesn't hurt profits. 
Like shooting fish in a barrel with the water taken out. 

dinsdag 6 augustus 2019

Royal Dutch Shell $RDS Benjamin Graham valuation


Royal Dutch Shell's share price is lower than in 2002, but if you have owned the stock and reinvested dividends than you would have made money. The current sales are quite incredible at $390b last year, comparable to the Gross Domestic Product of countries like Norway or Austria.
SECTOR: [PASS]  RDS.A is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. RDS.A's sales of $388,000 million, based on 2018 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. RDS.A's current ratio $93,000m/$84,000m of 1.1 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for RDS.A is $128,000 million, while the net current assets are $9,000 millionRDS.A fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. RDS.A's EPS decline over that period fails the EPS growth test.

EARNINGS YIELD:  [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. RDS.A's E/P of 8% (using the average of the last 3 years earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. RDS.A has a Graham number of (15 x €2,2 EPS x 1,5 x €22 Book Value) = €32 and passes this test.

Dividend: 1,7/24 = 7% but the oil and gas prices have to not decrease too much for Shell to be able to keep paying this dividend.

zaterdag 3 augustus 2019

Stand augustus 2019, Inleg EUR 3 250, Graham Waarde EUR 6 478, Korting 46%

De koers van ASML is van EUR 35 naar EUR 75 gestegen iets boven de Graham Waarde en we hebben bijna alles verkocht. We hebben United Natural Foods bijgekocht dat nu heel goedkoop lijkt te zijn. Een BOM (Bank of Montreal) analist Kelly Bania zegt dat het maar $5 waard is per aandeel, hoewel ze zei 2 jaar geleden dat het $50 waard was. Onze schatting is $37 en de koers was vrijdag even $7,60 ... Interessant. Ook de koers van NN Groep is gedaald en we hebben bijgekocht. Daardoor is de Graham Waarde gestegen evenals de Korting. Als het goed blijft gaan met United Natural Foods, dan is het van belang om niet te snel te verkopen. => Marshmellow Test.



donderdag 4 juli 2019

Stand juli 2019, Inleg EUR 3 200, Graham Waarde EUR 6 173, Korting 42%

Steinhoff had slechte resultaten in 2018, de schulden zijn sterk gestegen, het draait verlies. Graham Waarde schatting is door Yves Viegen op 0,- gezet en we gaan misschien Steinhoff verkopen, afhankelijk van een Strawpoll dat sluit vanavond om 22:22. United Natural Foods (UNFI) had een goede kwartaal maar de koers is gedaald van $15 in februari naar $8,20 afgelopen maand, waardoor we aandelen voordelig konden inkopen. Ook Cato Corp lijkt voordelig op dit moment, met een EBIT/EV Earnings Yield van 33% en een dividend van 11%. We hebben Thalassa Holdings (met moeite) verkocht omdat het niet winstgevend is na de verkoop van de hoofdactiviteit en hebben B&S Group uit Dordrecht gekocht een bedrijf die sterk groeit en een hoge rendement op boekwaarde heeft (30% Return on Equity) maar een lagere Graham waarde.



woensdag 5 juni 2019

Stand juni 2019, Inleg EUR 3 150, Graham Waarde EUR 6 038, Korting 43%

We proberen Thalassa Holdings te verkopen, maar het is niet liquide. Er worden (bijna) geen aandelen verhandeld. We hebben veel andelen NN Groep bijgekocht. Nieuw is Nederlandse handelsbedrijf B&S Group. De koers van United Natural Foods (UNFI) is (weer) sterk gedaald,  UNFI kwartaal cijfers komen vanavond na sluiting van de Amerikaanse beurs.
Opvallend is de hoge korting op dit moment.


vrijdag 17 mei 2019

Bubble watch 2019 WeWork and The Rabbit

It is 2 decades since the dotcom bubble and with hindsight it is easy to see how ridiculous market caps of Cisco Systems et al were in the year 2000 by using Peter Lynch charts.
Yesterday Jeff Koon's Rabbit was sold for $91m the highest price ever for a living artist, beating Hockney.
WeWork has filed for a >$50b IPO.
The company is seen as a competitor of Regus office space rental, but is also a social network based on the kibbutz and commune childhoods of the founders.
But just to get an idea of orders of magnitude, some back of the envelope math:
WeWork rents out 1m Square meters of office space. Say they earn a hefty net profit of €100/m per year, then earnings would be $100m multiple by a multiple of 20 and you get an intrinsic value guesstimate of $2b.
The IPO is 25x...

Another angle: WeWork has 400k members. What are investors paying per member?
Price $50b / 400k = One Hundred and Twenty-Five Thousand Dollars per member.
Life Time Value? Membership is $50 per month x 12 months is $600 per year. Times 10 = Six Thousand Dollars and that's Sales not Net Profit...
Also 25x too expensive.

One could argue WeWork is part of a "Unicorn" bubble. Check back in the year 2029. Also curious to see Aswath Damadorans take at Musing on Markets.






dinsdag 26 maart 2019

Stand april 2019, Inleg €3 050, Graham Waarde €5 830, korting 39%

We hebben BMW3 Preferred shares bijgekocht onder €62, we hebben ASM International deels verkocht boven €48. De afschrijvingen op boekwaarde bij United Natural Foods (leverancier van supermarkten in de VS) viel mee na de overname van SuperValu. Hierdoor is de Graham waarde sterk gestegen in maart. We hebben een budget van €2 100 (inclusief te ontvangen dividenden) om aandelen (bij) te kopen. Thor Industries onder $60 is een mogelijkheid. Reliance Steel & Aluminium (ticker RS) heeft een 100% Graham Defensive score bij Validea en zit in de AAII screen.


donderdag 7 maart 2019

Corbion Benjamin Graham intrinsic value analysis


Expenses and long-term debt increased in 2018. The company is opening PLA plants in Thailand and Europe. I don't understand the business or prospects.


Benjamin Graham Defensive Analysis:

SECTOR: [FAIL] Corbion is a bio-technology company? and therefore Benjamin Graham would consider it too risky. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Corbion's sales of €897 million, based on 2018 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO:  [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Corbion's current ratio €350m/€260m of 1,3 is not good enough.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Corbion is €185 million, while the net current assets are €90 million. Corbion fails this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH:  [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Corbion's earnings have not increased much over the past ten years and it has made losses recently.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Corbion's E/P of 4% (using the average over the past 3 years Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Corbion has a Graham number of (15 x €1,3 EPS x 1,5 x €8,9 Book Value) = €16 

Dividend: €0,56/€27 = 2%   

Conclusion March 2019: The stock doesn't seem cheap. Not for the Graham Defensive investor.

dinsdag 5 maart 2019

Stand maart 2019, inleg €3 000, Graham Waarde €5 547, korting 34%

We hebben nu EUR 2 023 cash (126 per persoon). Budget is 100% in aandelen. Aankoop eind maart? Goede resultaten van onder andere ASM International, Miller Industries en Assured Guaranty drijft winst per aandeel en boekwaarde omhoog waardoor Graham Waarde stijgt.



vrijdag 22 februari 2019

Inner Scorecard 2018

Hou niet van schulden. Hoge schuld is hoge risico. 
United Natural Foods =>opeens hoge schuld, dramatisch keldering
Outokumpo idem
BMW idem
Steinhoff idem
Een goed bedrijf produceert cash en neemt weinig risico's met hoge schulden. 
Bayer veel schulden

Flexsteel ook een verliespost. Boekte winst door voorraad te produceren maar verkocht niets. Cash is king. Had ik niet meer van moeten kopen. 

dinsdag 5 februari 2019

Stand februari 2019, inleg €2 950, Graham Waarde €5 462, korting 37%

We hebben Cato Corporation gekocht een familiebedrijf met dames mode winkels. 9% dividend, veel cash op het balans en geen schulden. Tevens een extra aandeel Tesla, dat pas goedkoop is als de groei een paar jaar evensnel zal gaan. De aankoop hiervan was terecht omstreden.
We hebben nu 20 aandelen, het streven is om 1 aandeel per machinist te hebben. De vraag is wat moeten/kunnen we nu verkopen?

Doordat de koersen in januari gestegen zijn, is de Margin of Safety afgenomen. Het was veiliger om eind december 2018 aandelen te kopen dan vandaag.


zondag 6 januari 2019

De waarde van elke investering volgens Buffett

Buffett: "Any investment is worth all the cash you're going to get out between now and judgement day discounted back."

"De waarde van elke investering is al het geld dat je eruit krijgt tussen nu en de dag des oordeels verdisconteerd terug naar vandaag."

Buffett: "Aesop, in between tortoises and hares, and all these other things he found time to write about birds. And he said, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." Now that isn't quite complete because the question is, how sure are you that there are two in the bush, and how long do you have to wait to get them out? Now, he probably knew that but he just didn't have time because he had all these other parables to write and had to get on with it. But he was halfway there in 600 BC. That's all there is to investing is, how many birds are in the bush, when are you going to get them out, and how sure are you?
Now if interest rates are 15 percent, roughly, you've got to get two birds out of the bush in five years to equal the bird in the hand. But if interest rates are 3 percent, and you can get two birds out in 20 years, it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand, because it all gets back to discounting against an interest rate. The problem is often you don't know not only how many birds are in the bush, but in the case of the internet companies there weren't any birds in the bush. But they still take the bird that you give them if they're in the hand.
But I actually have written about this sort of thing, and stealing heavily from Aesop who wrote it some 2600 years ago, but I've been behind on my reading. Yeah?"

vrijdag 4 januari 2019

Peter Lynch diagram logarithmic vs linear for Apple plus buyback back of the envelope math

Gurufocus introduced me to the idea of "Peter Lynch" charts. This isn't "technical analysis" of a stock's price, but a comparison between price and a part of value determination. One is the scoreboard (price), the other what is happening on the playing field (how is the company doing). Gurufocus uses linear charts, so it often seems as if the recent past was the best (steepest curve).



Lynch himself preferred logarithmic charts where you get a better grasp of the actual relative rate of growth. Francisco Parames also uses Peter Lynch diagrams for European stocks,  Parames like Lynch and unlike Gurufocus, uses a logarithmic scale. 
 I use a weighted Earnings per Share over 3 years in this logarithmic Peter Lynch graph for Apple:
Surprisingly, the 4 years before the iPhone launch in the second half of 2007 seemed to be better for investors than the first 4 years after the iPhone was first introduced...

Here is a linear chart I made in 2013 when the price was $400, adjusted for the 7-1 stock split in 2014 that would be: $57, not a bad price considering today's price of $142 but also considering earnings at the time.


The question is: "What do you expect in a couple of years? Earnings?" In this case Earnings per Share (as a Shareholder that is more important to me than total company earnings).

I don't know how the company will do.

Stupid assumption 1: Unchanged earnings. Say $50b a year.

There are 4,8b shares outstanding. Price is $142 per share. Cash $130b.

Stupid assumption number 2: Unchanged stock price.

Apple's CEO Tim Cook has said he will use cash to buy shares (and pay dividends).

$130b cash @$142 per share = 0,92b share buy back.

Share count: 4,8b - 0,92b = 3,9b shares

Buyback per year: $50b @$142 per share = 0,35b

Shares end of year 1: 3,9b - 0,35b = 3,55b

Earnings per share: $50b/3,55 shares = $14 EPS end of year 1

Shares end of year 2: 3,55b - 0,35b share buyback = 3,2b

Earnings per share: $50b/3,2b = $15,6 EPS end of year 2

Earnings per share: $50b/2,85b shares = $17,54 end of year 3

Earnings per share: $50b/2,5 shares = $20 end of year 4

Earnings per share: $50/2,15 = $23 end of year 5