dinsdag 6 november 2018

Stand november 2019, inleg EUR 2 800,- waarde EUR 5058,- , korting 34%

De korting is toegenomen na "Red October in the Markets" waarbij aandelen wereldwijd tussen 6 en 10% in prijs vielen. Een prima moment voor eventuele nieuwe Machinisten om in te stappen.

De waarde van onze portefeuille is iets afgenomen door slechte resultaten en vooruitzichten bij o.a. meubelmaker Flexsteel Industries en BE Semiconductor. Lagere winsten per aandeel resulteert in lagere Graham waarden. Tesla is het meest in waarde toegenomen, het is nu winstgevend en de boekwaarde per aandeel is toegenomen, maar de koers blijft erg hoog.
We hebben United Natural Foods (100% Validea Graham Defensive score) bijgekocht. Vraag is hoe de fusie tussen voedsel groothandels United Natural (ticker UNFI) en verliesgevend SuperValu zal verlopen... https://www.supermarketnews.com/retail-financial/united-natural-foods-wraps-supervalu-acquisition


donderdag 4 oktober 2018

Stand oktober 2018, inleg EUR 2 750,- waarde EUR 5 078,- korting 31%

BMW gaf een winstwaarschuwing, we hebben Marine Harvest met 14% winst verkocht volgens plan. We hebben nu (bijna) geen contant cash en hebben alles in aandelen belegd volgens onze "value averaging" plan http://machineonenl.blogspot.com/2016/09/backtest-buy-low-sell-high-re-balancing.html

Nieuwe aanschaf Lucas Bols: http://sinaas.blogspot.com/2018/06/lucas-bols-price-is-now-lower-than.html




woensdag 29 augustus 2018

Stand inclusief september 2018, inleg EUR 2 700,- waarde EUR 4 985,- korting 30%

We hebben Cooper Tire (daling winst) verkocht, 1 aandeel Tesla gekocht. Elon Musk zei een bod van $420 te overwegen om het bedrijf van de beurs te halen. Dat gaat niet door. Weis Markets weer aangekocht omdat de koers weer gedaald was. Mogelijk aankoop BE Semiconductor Industries BESI?


zaterdag 4 augustus 2018

Aperam intrinsic value based on Benjamin Graham Defensive analysis



SECTOR: [PASS] Aperam is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Aperam's sales of €5 051 million, based on 2017 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Aperam's current ratio €2 036m/€1 558m of 1.5 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS:  [PASS] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Aperam is €396 million, while the net current assets are €706 million. Aperam passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for Aperam were often negative in the recent past and therefore the company fails this criterion.

Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. APERAM's  E/P of  8% (using last year's earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Aperam has a Graham number of (15 x €3,4 EPS x €26 Book Value) = €45

Dividend: €1,80/€40 = 5%

Conclusion: Too difficult pile. Might be a buy if price falls towards €30.

donderdag 2 augustus 2018

Stand inclusief inleg augustus 2018, inleg € 2 650,- Waarde € 4 911,- korting 30%

Juli was een goede maand. Een aantal aandelen zijn in prijs gestegen richting intrinsieke waarde en zijn (deels) verkocht zoals Nagacorp en Sasol. Nieuw is Miller Industries. https://millerind.com
Weis Markets is in prijs gedaald naar bijna $50 nadat we eerder alles verkocht hadden rond $57 en is nu weer aangekocht.



zaterdag 21 juli 2018

Wessanen intrinsic value Benjamin Graham analysis


Mr. Market seems to have gotten a bit ahead of himself. The stock price of Wessanen dropped 26% yesterday, but the stock still isn't cheap.

Benjamin Graham Defensive Analysis from Chapter 14 of The Intelligent Investor:

SECTOR: [PASS] Wessanen is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS]  The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Wessanen's sales of €625 million, based on 2017 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Wessanen's current ratio €211m/€163m of 1.3 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for Wessanen is EUR 84 million, while the net current assets are €48 millionWessanen fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Wessanen recently lost money and fails this test.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Wessanen's E/P of 4% (using the current Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value:  [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Wessanen has a Graham number of (15 x €0,44 EPS x 1,5 x €3,07 Book Value) = €5,5. Today's price is: €12,8

Dividend: Wessanen paid a dividend of €0,13, which resulted in a 1% dividend yield. At the same time the company sold shares: They took money from shareholders (maybe not a bad idea if the share price is very high compared to intrinsic value).

Conclusion: Not a stock for the Graham Defensive Investor. Maybe a buy under 8 EUR.

donderdag 19 juli 2018

Argan AGX Validea Benjamin Graham Defensive analysis

A holding company. Gemma Power Systems (GPS) is the biggest holding. It has been very busy, making a lot of money. Now there is a lull in business. The question is will GPS fid more gas-fired electric generation plants to build? See http://arganinc.com/investor-center/ On Finviz, Earnings per 

Share for the coming year are estimated at $2,84/share.

The company pays a dividend of $1 per year / $38 price per share = 3% dividend yield. Very strong balance sheet, company won't go broke anytime soon.

Detailed Validea.com Analysis of Argan, ticker AGX


SECTOR: PASS

AGX is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable.


SALES: FAIL

The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than $1 billion. AGX's sales of $803.7 million, based on trailing 12 month sales, fail this test.


CURRENT RATIO: PASS

The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. AGX's current ratio of 2.82 passes the test.


LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: PASS

For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for AGX is $0.0 million, while the net current assets are $300.3 million. AGX passes this test.


LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS

Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 10 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. AGX's EPS growth over that period of 948.6% passes the EPS growth test.


P/E RATIO: PASS

The Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio, based on the greater of the current PE or the PE using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "moderate", which this methodology states is not greater than 15. Stocks with moderate P/Es are more defensive by nature. AGX's P/E of 11.02 (using the current PE) passes this test.


PRICE/BOOK RATIO: PASS

The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is, the Price/Book multiplied by P/E cannot be greater than 22. AGX's Price/Book ratio is 1.68, while the P/E is 11.02AGX passes the Price/Book test.

maandag 9 juli 2018

Stand inclusief inleg juli 2018, inleg € 2 600,- Waarde € 4 788,- korting 31%

Ik (Ansgar John) heb een fout gemaakt en heb teveel aandelen gekocht in verhouding tot de "value averaging" plan. Excuus. We hebben per Machinist nu 7 Euro cash, dat zou ongeveer 47 Euro cash moeten zijn. Ik heb een paar limiet orders geplaatst om wat te verkopen om zo geld te hebben om te kunnen profiteren van een mogelijk crash in de nabije toekomst.

We hebben besloten (PC) Connection helemaal te verkopen. Martyn Top zal blijven kijken naar een mogelijk nieuwe lage instap moment voor (PC) Connection, ticker CNXN. Hij gaat ook United Natural Foods ticker UNFI voor zijn rekening nemen?

We hebben BMW Preferred ticker BMW3 aandelen bijgekocht na eerdere verkoop op veel hogere niveaus. Het effect van Tesla en de handelsoorlog met de VS is voor mij moeilijk in te schatten. BMW lijkt wel te begrijpen dat ze electrische autos zullen moeten gaan bouwen. Op de kaft van de Jaarverslag 2017 stond: "The Future is Electric" Ook ASM International chips hebben we bijgekocht.

Dank aan Carolien v/d Wal voor het toevoegen van de kleuren codes in de "Begroot Aankopen" overzicht en Holdings hieronder.





dinsdag 22 mei 2018

Stand inclusief inleg juni 2018, inleg € 2 550,- Waarde € 4 563,- korting 29%

Wat de gek geeft voor onze aandelen is iets toegenomen. Genesco is verkocht. Wereldhave vastgoed met o.a. C&A als huurder is gekocht. Voor vastgoed is de vuistregel voor de aanschafprijs: "Tien keer de huur is niet duur." denk aan Koers / Winst verhouding van 10 oftewel Earnings Yield van 10% -> Winst/Koers.


Nummer 1 op de AAII Graham Defensive Non-Utility Screen waar we nog geen aandelen van hebben is: Federated Investors ticker FII. http://www.federatedinvestors.com/FII/about/investorrelations/home.do



Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

woensdag 9 mei 2018

Stand mei 2018 inleg €2 500, Graham Waarde €4 480, korting 31%

Verkoop deel BMW met hoge korting, slechte resultaten Cooper Tire = lagere waarde. Bijna 100% in aandelen volgens value averaging systeem. Streven is om 80-90% in echte Graham Defensive aandelen te beleggen.

donderdag 5 april 2018

AFLAC quack quack Benjamin Graham Intrinsic Value analysis

AFLAC is an insurer in the USA and Japan.

The last AFLAC 2 for 1 stock split was a few weeks ago on the 16th of March 2018: http://investors.aflac.com/stock-information/stock-dividend-split-history.aspx


P/E RATIO: PASS

The Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio, based on the greater of the current PE or the PE using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "moderate", which this methodology states is not greater than 15. Stocks with moderate P/Es are more defensive by nature. AFL's P/E of 13.60 (using the 3 year PE) passes this test.

PRICE/BOOK RATIO: PASS

The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is, the Price/Book multiplied by P/E cannot be greater than 22. AFL's Price/Book ratio is 1.40, while the P/E is 13.60AFL passes the Price/Book test.

Increasing Dividend: Currently $2,08 / $44 = 5% plus 4% sharebuybacks per year.

AFLAC isn't a standard insurer. It gives people extra cash in one day when they get sick or injured. Here is there first duck commercial that explains the idea.



Later Melania Trump starred in an AFLAC commerical.


AFLAC has consistently outperformed the index:

http://investors.aflac.com/stock-information/interactive-chart.aspx

Some more explanation from the Motley Fool:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/06/07/6-things-you-didnt-know-about-aflac.aspx

It is still run by the original family: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aflac

Note: Why are revenues falling?
Answer: Weakening Yen

Checklist: 5 x M: Marktpotentieel, Marge, Moat, Management, Money

1. Marketpotential: Can the company grow exponentially?
FAIL: due to demographic trends in Japan and high current penetration

2. Marge: Margin and/or Return on Equity
15-20% ROE pass

3. Moat: Pass Economies of Scale and Brand

4. Management: Pass

5. Money: Is the price ok? Pass

Checklist failure: market potential for growth

 Personal note: Many Americans don't save and invest. Customers would probably be better off saving and investing their money in a cheap index fund than paying premiums to AFLAC and its shareholders. That way they would have more money for a rainy day.

Stand april 2018 inleg 2 450 Eur, Graham Waarde 4 532 Eur, korting 32%

Mr. Market vroeg minder geld voor hetzelfde aandeel in bedrijven waardoor we nu meer aandelen hebben en minder cash per persoon (nu €39,-). De aankoop beslissing hangt samen met onze "value averaging" techniek.

Het lijkt een prima moment voor nieuwe Machinisten om in te stappen.

Steinhoff blijft spannend, is zeker geen Graham Defensive aandeel.




dinsdag 20 maart 2018

Steinhoff International Balance Sheet estimate

Steinhoff stock has fallen since a report by https://viceroyresearch.org/  pointed out a system of off-balance sheet deals and other accounting irregularities. The question is: "Will shareholders lose everything or will the company survive?" 

In the Annual Report, the book value seemed to be 3,8 Euros per share, but most of that was Goodwill which will now be written off.

Currently, the share price is 27 cents, it seems that book value should be about twice that?

Update: "Vacant" value of Hemisphere €1,1b lower. Book Value per Share: €0,37 ?


donderdag 15 maart 2018

Flexsteel furniture factories Graham Defensive Analysis



-          Bedrijf: Flexsteel Stock Ticker FLXS -

Machinist:…Ansgar John maart 2018……..

Hoe verdient het bedrijf geld? Het ontwerpt, produceert en distribueert meubelen in de VS en Mexico.

Hoe heet de CEO? Karel K. Czanderna

Hoe lang is hij al in functie? Sinds 2012

AANDELEN SELECTIE VOOR DE DEFENSIEVE BELEGGER:

· Is het een hightech bedrijf of financiĆ«le instelling?  Nee PASS
· Omzet hoger dan €300miljoen? $ 470 miljoen €380 miljoen PASS
· Financiering: (Current Ratio): vlottende activa (Current Assets)…$202m…… moet twee keer zo hoog zijn als de kort vreemd vermogen (Current Liabilities) ……$39………………. Current Ratio: …5,2 PASS zeer goed…………
· Netto vlottende activa moeten hoog genoeg zijn om de lange termijn schulden te kunnen betalen: (Vlottende activa – Kort Vreemd Vermogen) – (Lange termijn schulden) = $160 PASS
· Groei van de winst over 7 jaar   ……100%………………. meer dan 20%? PASS
· Is het een Money Making Machine, dat wil zeggen, een bedrijf die de afgelopen 7 jaar elk jaar winstgevend was ? ……JA PASS…… (of in ieder geval positieve cash-flow?) …………
· Earnings Yield: winst per aandeel …$3,3…./ …$39……koers =  8,5% PASS..  %  (minstens 7%)
· Koers $39. / boekwaarde per aandeel (equity per share) $31. verhouding lager dan 1,5 PASS
· Dividend ………$0,88………. ? ………2,2…. % (bij voorkeur wel) PASS
· Aandeleninkoop (share repurchase) …
Nee………………..

Graham Number = … $47….  (Liefst hoger dan koers) PASS
Wortel uit (15 x Winst per Aandeel x 1,5 x Boekwaarde per Aandeel)

Deze criteria zijn afgeleid van Benjamin Graham's meesterwerk: 'De Intelligente Belegger’ pagina 100, Hoofdstuk 4: Algemeen Porfoliobeleid: De Defensieve Belegger 

Kansen en bedreigen: Bestaat dit bedrijf(stak) over 7 jaar?
Ja, maar een recessie zou slecht zijn voor meubelverkoop. Import uit Azie en IKEA vormen een bedreiging.


Gaat de winst waarschijnlijk stijgen of dalen? Stijgen als gevolg van lagere belastingspercentage in de VS (Tax Reform).

PC Connection Inc Benjamin Graham Defensive Screen


The Gurufocus Peter Lynch chart. Notice the price bubble around 2000. The red and blue line is 15x Earnings per Share. The price is PE (Price/Earnings) would be 15.


-          Bedrijf:…PC “Connection” Inc….Stock Ticker…CNXN…………….-


Machinist:…Ansgar John maart 2018………………………..

Hoe verdient het bedrijf geld? Leverancier van IT producten en software oplossingen aan bedrijven en overheden.

Hoe heet de CEO? Timothy McGrath werkt bij het bedrijf sinds 2005

Hoe lang is hij al in functie:       ? Oprichters zijn nog deel van Raad van Commissarissen (Board of Directors: Mr. David Hall co-founded PC Connection, Inc. with Patricia Gallup in 1982. )

AANDELEN SELECTIE VOOR DE DEFENSIEVE BELEGGER:

· Is het een hightech bedrijf of financiĆ«le instelling? (Liever niet) ……Nee PASS
· Omzet hoger dan €300miljoen? $2 900 miljoen…PASS……………..
· Financiering: (Current Ratio): vlottende activa (Current Assets)……$616m…… moet twee keer zo hoog zijn als de kort vreemd vermogen (Current Liabilities) ………$248………………. Current Ratio: …2,5 PASS…………
· Netto vlottende activa moeten hoog genoeg zijn om de lange termijn schulden te kunnen betalen: (Vlottende activa – Kort Vreemd Vermorgen) – (Lange termijn schulden) = …$350 PASS…………
· Groei van de winst over 7 jaar   ………100% PASS………………. meer dan 20%?
· Is het een Money Making Machine, dat wil zeggen, een bedrijf die de afgelopen 7 jaar elk jaar winstgevend was ? ……Ja PASS……… (of in ieder geval positieve cash-flow?) ………………………
· Earnings Yield: winst per aandeel …$2,1…./ ……$26……koers =  …8 % PASS (minstens 7%)
· Koers …$26. / boekwaarde per aandeel (equity per share)  …$18…….. verhouding lager dan 1,5 PASS
· Dividend ……$0,34…………. ? ………1 % (bij voorkeur wel)
· Aandeleninkoop (share repurchase) …Nee…………..

Graham Number = ……$29….. PASS (Liefst hoger dan koers)
Wortel uit (15 x Winst per Aandeel x 1,5 x Boekwaarde per Aandeel)

Deze criteria zijn afgeleid van Benjamin Graham's meesterwerk: 'De Intelligente Belegger’ pagina 100, Hoofdstuk 4: Algemeen Porfoliobeleid: De Defensieve Belegger 
Kansen en bedreigen: Bestaat dit bedrijf(stak) over 7 jaar?
Waarschijnlijk wel, maar niet 100% zeker?

Gaat de winst waarschijnlijk stijgen of dalen? ?????

dinsdag 6 maart 2018

Nagacorp a textbook example of Mr. Market's mood swings: intrinsic value and price

 A little over a year ago I did a Benjamin Graham Defensive Analysis of Nagacorp a casino in Cambodia. The price was 4,27 HKD (Hong Kong Dollars), this was the value investing graph:


http://sinaas.blogspot.nl/2017/01/nagacorp-intrinsic-value-benjamin.html 

This is the graph today:


This is value investing theory:

Nagacorp Graham Analysis today March 2018. 

An assumption of Earnings per Share growth ( through Nagacorp 2 expansion and extra gambling "junkets" from China) to 0,87 Hong Kong Dollars EPS is made.

SECTOR: [PASS] Nagacorp is in the gaming sector. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published. 

SALES: 
[PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Nagacorp' sales of HKD 7 253 million, (€926m) based on 2017 sales, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO:  [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Nagacorp' current ratio HKD1 222m/HKD618m of 2,0 passes this test.
LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [PASS] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). The long-term debt for Nagacorp is HKD 0 million (or have convertibles been issued to the CEO for the Vladivostok expansion??), while the net current assets are  HKD 595 million. Nagacorp passes this test.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Nagacorp' earnings per share have increased 240% since 2007.

Earnings Yield:  [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Nagacorp's  E/P of 8%  (using the average of the last 2 years Earnings and a 2018 estimate) passes this test.

Graham Number value: 
[FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Nagacorp has a Graham number of √ (15 x HKD 0,7 EPS x 1,5 x HKD 3,4 Book Value) = HKD 7,3 

Dividend ? : HKD 0,22/ HKD 7,91 = 3%

donderdag 1 maart 2018

ASM International ASMI intrinsic value based on Benjamin Graham number

ASM International is doing well. Business in ALD : Atomic Layer Disposition, about half of sales, is going well and expected to increase. 2017 profit of €7,6 per share was connected to the sale of part of ASMPT. Dividend has been increased to €0,80 from €0,70 and there will be a special dividend of €4,- per share.

SECTOR:  [FAIL]  ASM is in the Technology sector, which is one sector that this methodology avoids. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published. At that time they were not the driving force of the market as they are today. Although this methodology would avoid ASM, we will provide the rest of the analysis, as we feel times have changed.

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. ASM's sales of €737 million, based on 2017 sales, passes this test.

CURRENT RATIO:  [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. ASM's current ratio €1 158m/€151m of 7.7 passethis test with flying colors.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [PASS] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for ASM is €14 million, while the net current assets are €1 007 million. ASM passes this test easily.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. ASM's earnings have increased 200% over the past ten years.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. ASM's E/P of 5% (using this years adjusted Earnings of €3,2) fails this test.

Graham Number value: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. ASM has a Graham number of (15 x €3,7 EPS x 1,5 x €38,9 Book Value) = €57 

Dividend: €0.8/€62 = 1,3% and has increased over the years. ASM International is also buying back shares using its cash.

Conclusion: ASM has a very strong balance sheet and seems like a good pick for the Defensive Investor at a price of around €55, currently the price of €62, seems reasonable. 

Note: I haven't done much homework and don't understand the business or why profits were so high in 2013.  MachineOne.nl bought at €34,5 and sold at €45,97 February 1 st 2017, a 30% gain in less than a year.

In September 2017, we bought again at 51 and will sell around €65 if the price goes up quickly.

See: www.beterinbeleggen.nl for more in depth, qualitative analysis of "good" companies.