donderdag 4 januari 2018

Thal... Holdings buybacks best scenario

Eerste vraag is hoeveel warrants zijn er? Warrants give people the right, but not the obligation, to buy shares at a certain price before expiration. I don't know if there are more warrants and what the price is at which shares can be bought.

13 september 2017: 500 000 warrants used to buy new Thal. shares. So there were 500 000 more shares after this day, than before. I don't know what the people paid for these shares.
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The longer the share price of Thala... Holdings stays low, the more positive it is for longterm shareholders due to current and possible future buybacks.

The company has sold WG P its main company. At 20,6 million shares outstanding, this would be the situation:

Net cash                                               $21,3m
Shares in The Local Shopping REIT   $9,3m (at cost)
Autonomous Robotics Limited            $8m (at valuation of current offer)
Other                                                    $0,7m 
Total                                                     $39,3m
Per share: $1,91 book value per share or 1,41 GB Pounds

The company has been buying back shares under book value:
208 250 shares @ 1,05 GBP = 0,219m GBP
  80 000 shares @ 0,079 GBP = 0,079m GBP
110 000 shares @ 0,99 GBP = 0,109m GBP
400 000 shares @ 1,00 GBP = 0,4m GBP
798 250 shares    for     0,807m GBP

Shares today: 20,6m - 0,8m = 19,8m shares outstanding

Total book value = $39,3 - 0,8m GBP = $38,2m per share $1,93

Current budget to buyback more shares = 1,6m GBP (of original 4m GBP)

@ 1 GBP per share = 1,6m shares

After that:  19,8m shares - 1,6m = 18,2m shares outstanding
Book value $38,2m - 1,6m GBP = $36m
Book value per share = $36m / 18,2m shares = $1,98 = 1,46 GBP

@ todays share price 0,94 GBP, does a 6% lower buyback price make a big difference?

Shares 1,6m GBP budget / 0,94 GBP per share = 1,7m shares

After that: 19,8m shares - 1,7m = 18,1m shares outstanding
Book value $38,2 - 1,6m GBP = $36m
Book value  per share = $36m / 18,1m shares = $1,99 = 1,47 GBP

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Best scenario? Extra huge buyback of 10m GBP at 1 GBP per share?

Number of shares: 18,2m - 10m = 8,2m shares after major buyback

Book value: $36m - 10m GBP = $22,46m

Per share $22,46 / 8,2m = $2,74 per share or 2,02 GBP per share

You might be able to buy a Pound for 50 cents?

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Overhead costs in the year?


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