donderdag 4 januari 2018

Thal... Holdings buybacks best scenario

Eerste vraag is hoeveel warrants zijn er? Warrants give people the right, but not the obligation, to buy shares at a certain price before expiration. I don't know if there are more warrants and what the price is at which shares can be bought.

13 september 2017: 500 000 warrants used to buy new Thal. shares. So there were 500 000 more shares after this day, than before. I don't know what the people paid for these shares.
The longer the share price of Thala... Holdings stays low, the more positive it is for longterm shareholders due to current and possible future buybacks.

The company has sold WG P its main company. At 20,6 million shares outstanding, this would be the situation:

Net cash                                               $21,3m
Shares in The Local Shopping REIT   $9,3m (at cost)
Autonomous Robotics Limited            $8m (at valuation of current offer)
Other                                                    $0,7m 
Total                                                     $39,3m
Per share: $1,91 book value per share or 1,41 GB Pounds

The company has been buying back shares under book value:
208 250 shares @ 1,05 GBP = 0,219m GBP
  80 000 shares @ 0,079 GBP = 0,079m GBP
110 000 shares @ 0,99 GBP = 0,109m GBP
400 000 shares @ 1,00 GBP = 0,4m GBP
798 250 shares    for     0,807m GBP

Shares today: 20,6m - 0,8m = 19,8m shares outstanding

Total book value = $39,3 - 0,8m GBP = $38,2m per share $1,93

Current budget to buyback more shares = 1,6m GBP (of original 4m GBP)

@ 1 GBP per share = 1,6m shares

After that:  19,8m shares - 1,6m = 18,2m shares outstanding
Book value $38,2m - 1,6m GBP = $36m
Book value per share = $36m / 18,2m shares = $1,98 = 1,46 GBP

@ todays share price 0,94 GBP, does a 6% lower buyback price make a big difference?

Shares 1,6m GBP budget / 0,94 GBP per share = 1,7m shares

After that: 19,8m shares - 1,7m = 18,1m shares outstanding
Book value $38,2 - 1,6m GBP = $36m
Book value  per share = $36m / 18,1m shares = $1,99 = 1,47 GBP

Best scenario? Extra huge buyback of 10m GBP at 1 GBP per share?

Number of shares: 18,2m - 10m = 8,2m shares after major buyback

Book value: $36m - 10m GBP = $22,46m

Per share $22,46 / 8,2m = $2,74 per share or 2,02 GBP per share

You might be able to buy a Pound for 50 cents?

Overhead costs in the year?

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