Aperam intrinsic value based on Benjamin Graham Defensive analysis

SECTOR: [PASS] Aperam is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Aperam's sales of €5 051 million, based on 2017 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Aperam's current ratio €2 036m/€1 558m of 1.5 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS:  [PASS] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that do not meet this criterion lack the financial stability that this methodology likes to see. The long-term debt for Aperam is €396 million, while the net current assets are €706 million. Aperam passes this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. EPS for Aperam were often negative in the recent past and therefore the company fails this criterion.

Earnings Yield: [PASS] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. APERAM's  E/P of  8% (using last year's earnings) passes this test.

Graham Number value: [PASS]  The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Aperam has a Graham number of √(15 x €3,4 EPS x €26 Book Value) = €45

Dividend: €1,80/€40 = 5%

Conclusion: Too difficult pile. Might be a buy if price falls towards €30.

Stand inclusief inleg augustus 2018, inleg € 2 650,- Waarde € 4 911,- korting 30%

Juli was een goede maand. Een aantal aandelen zijn in prijs gestegen richting intrinsieke waarde en zijn (deels) verkocht zoals Nagacorp en Sasol. Nieuw is Miller Industries. https://millerind.com
Weis Markets is in prijs gedaald naar bijna $50 nadat we eerder alles verkocht hadden rond $57 en is nu weer aangekocht.

Wessanen intrinsic value Benjamin Graham analysis

Mr. Market seems to have gotten a bit ahead of himself. The stock price of Wessanen dropped 26% yesterday, but the stock still isn't cheap.

Benjamin Graham Defensive Analysis from Chapter 14 of The Intelligent Investor:

SECTOR: [PASS] Wessanen is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. 

SALES: [PASS]  The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than €260 million. Wessanen's sales of €625 million, based on 2017 sales, pass this test.

CURRENT RATIO: [FAIL] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. Wessanen's current ratio €211m/€163m of 1.3 fails the test.

LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [FAIL] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for Wessanen is EUR 84 million, while the net current assets are €48 million. Wessanen fails this test.

LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [FAIL] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. Wessanen recently lost money and fails this test.

Earnings Yield: [FAIL] The Earnings/Price (inverse P/E) %, based on the lesser of the current Earnings Yield or the Yield using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "acceptable", which this methodology states is greater than 6,5%. Stocks with higher earnings yields are more defensive by nature. Wessanen's E/P of 4% (using the current Earnings) fails this test.

Graham Number value:  [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is the Graham number value must be greater than the market price. Wessanen has a Graham number of √(15 x €0,44 EPS x 1,5 x €3,07 Book Value) = €5,5. Today's price is: €12,8

Dividend: Wessanen paid a dividend of €0,13, which resulted in a 1% dividend yield. At the same time the company sold shares: They took money from shareholders (maybe not a bad idea if the share price is very high compared to intrinsic value).

Conclusion: Not a stock for the Graham Defensive Investor. Maybe a buy under 8 EUR.

Argan AGX Validea Benjamin Graham Defensive analysis

A holding company. Gemma Power Systems (GPS) is the biggest holding. It has been very busy, making a lot of money. Now there is a lull in business. The question is will GPS fid more gas-fired electric generation plants to build? See http://arganinc.com/investor-center/ On Finviz, Earnings per 

Share for the coming year are estimated at $2,84/share.

The company pays a dividend of $1 per year / $38 price per share = 3% dividend yield. Very strong balance sheet, company won't go broke anytime soon.

Detailed Validea.com Analysis of Argan, ticker AGX

SECTOR: PASS AGX is neither a technology nor financial Company, and therefore this methodology is applicable. SALES: FAIL The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than $1 billion. AGX's sales of $803.7 million, based on trailing 12 month sales, fail this test. CURRENT RATIO: PASS The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. AGX's current ratio of 2.82 passes the test. LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: PASS For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for AGX is $0.0 million, while the net current assets are $300.3 million. AGX passes this test. LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: PASS Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 10 years. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. AGX's EPS growth over that period of 948.6% passes the EPS growth test. P/E RATIO: PASS The Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio, based on the greater of the current PE or the PE using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "moderate", which this methodology states is not greater than 15. Stocks with moderate P/Es are more defensive by nature. AGX's P/E of 11.02 (using the current PE) passes this test. PRICE/BOOK RATIO: PASS The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is, the Price/Book multiplied by P/E cannot be greater than 22. AGX's Price/Book ratio is 1.68, while the P/E is 11.02. AGX passes the Price/Book test.

Stand inclusief inleg juli 2018, inleg € 2 600,- Waarde € 4 788,- korting 31%

Ik (Ansgar John) heb een fout gemaakt en heb teveel aandelen gekocht in verhouding tot de "value averaging" plan. Excuus. We hebben per Machinist nu 7 Euro cash, dat zou ongeveer 47 Euro cash moeten zijn. Ik heb een paar limiet orders geplaatst om wat te verkopen om zo geld te hebben om te kunnen profiteren van een mogelijk crash in de nabije toekomst.

We hebben besloten (PC) Connection helemaal te verkopen. Martyn Top zal blijven kijken naar een mogelijk nieuwe lage instap moment voor (PC) Connection, ticker CNXN. Hij gaat ook United Natural Foods ticker UNFI voor zijn rekening nemen?

We hebben BMW Preferred ticker BMW3 aandelen bijgekocht na eerdere verkoop op veel hogere niveaus. Het effect van Tesla en de handelsoorlog met de VS is voor mij moeilijk in te schatten. BMW lijkt wel te begrijpen dat ze electrische autos zullen moeten gaan bouwen. Op de kaft van de Jaarverslag 2017 stond: "The Future is Electric" Ook ASM International chips hebben we bijgekocht.

Dank aan Carolien v/d Wal voor het toevoegen van de kleuren codes in de "Begroot Aankopen" overzicht en Holdings hieronder.

Stand inclusief inleg juni 2018, inleg € 2 550,- Waarde € 4 563,- korting 29%

Wat de gek geeft voor onze aandelen is iets toegenomen. Genesco is verkocht. Wereldhave vastgoed met o.a. C&A als huurder is gekocht. Voor vastgoed is de vuistregel voor de aanschafprijs: "Tien keer de huur is niet duur." denk aan Koers / Winst verhouding van 10 oftewel Earnings Yield van 10% -> Winst/Koers.

Nummer 1 op de AAII Graham Defensive Non-Utility Screen waar we nog geen aandelen van hebben is: Federated Investors ticker FII. http://www.federatedinvestors.com/FII/about/investorrelations/home.do

Comments, questions or E-mails welcome: ajbrenninkmeijer@gmail.com

Stand mei 2018 inleg €2 500, Graham Waarde €4 480, korting 31%

Verkoop deel BMW met hoge korting, slechte resultaten Cooper Tire = lagere waarde. Bijna 100% in aandelen volgens value averaging systeem. Streven is om 80-90% in echte Graham Defensive aandelen te beleggen.